Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 9.212007 10.586968 12.068561 13.780263 15.699675 17.781914 20.207963
2025-12-07 7.310474 9.197877 11.390753 14.112292 17.383633 21.172781 25.876188
2025-12-14 6.129120 8.184713 10.692994 13.951907 18.044082 22.980010 29.347961
2025-12-21 5.026995 7.100956 9.750449 13.341637 18.034294 23.905005 31.744035
2025-12-28 4.555743 6.741100 9.639949 13.706295 19.192327 26.257414 35.950051
2026-01-04 4.127760 6.378310 9.469637 13.944800 20.160382 28.376968 39.925692
2026-01-11 3.665039 5.906419 9.090457 13.840666 20.622260 29.809843 43.018353
2026-01-18 3.263655 5.475780 8.720575 13.700980 20.996745 31.109017 45.953355
2026-01-25 2.957707 5.153941 8.473323 13.704171 21.550470 32.654752 49.266928
2026-02-01 2.718021 4.908811 8.314452 13.814684 22.248014 34.414069 52.932837
2026-02-08 2.462586 4.610214 8.043913 13.726175 22.628818 35.715157 55.973759
2026-02-15 2.227838 4.321024 7.761107 13.590394 22.915953 36.873222 58.831403
2026-02-22 2.057219 4.129551 7.627100 13.689869 23.583608 38.646131 62.706156
2026-03-01 1.954411 4.048690 7.670007 14.077795 24.723391 41.180286 67.826551
2026-03-08 1.766530 3.790903 7.387217 13.897385 24.928235 42.268622 70.763691
2026-03-15 1.534395 3.423548 6.880670 13.296160 24.400893 42.174949 71.849204
2026-03-22 1.466159 3.368636 6.928311 13.657203 25.489504 44.680898 77.095577
2026-03-29 1.386453 3.282083 6.909709 13.895880 26.376418 46.889116 81.938174
2026-04-05 1.270008 3.107007 6.710280 13.791741 26.661267 48.117807 85.237938
2026-04-12 1.160497 2.934461 6.500929 13.652599 26.871540 49.222362 88.362827
2026-04-19 1.076835 2.809102 6.373245 13.655740 27.329544 50.751419 92.229392
2026-04-26 1.011346 2.717393 6.305052 13.765927 27.981595 52.627263 96.727879
2026-05-03 0.931763 2.584213 6.141103 13.677686 28.261808 53.869399 100.192909